We forecast the impact of 5G traffic on mobile networks, and resulting spectrum requirements for a European MNO

The problem

• A European fixed and mobile operator wished to understand the traffic load that 5G might generate, and the implications for mobile network planning
• The operator appointed Analysys Mason to establish 5G traffic forecasts and to estimate the impact on future traffic on its networks

The solution

• We considered how busy-hour schemes will change in 5G networks for mobile broadband (MBB) and fixed-wireless access (FWA) services
• We considered the proportion of traffic currently generated indoors, and using Wi-Fi
• We expanded the forecasts produced by our Research division on mobile and fixed market subscribers and traffic, along with IoT market forecasts, to develop bottom up 5G subscriber and traffic forecasts for the operator across its different European markets
• For each country, we modelled a base case, an aggressive case and a conservative case, due to long-term uncertainty over key variables
• We considered different levels of adoption across the key 5G services of MBB, IoT and FWA
• Outputs were provided in an Excel model and PowerPoint report outlining forecast traffic per market, and impact on network capacity and spectrum requirements

Figure: Input to 5G spectrum strategy for a mobile operator

The result

• The client used our report as input to its 5G spectrum strategy
• The report will also form an input to spectrum valuation assessment by the client in relation to upcoming 5G spectrum awards in different European markets