Advised an Asian postal regulator on preparing for a future of declining traditional postal deliveries and increasing e-commerce parcel deliveries

The problem

• The postal regulator in an Asian country was concerned about the impact of the dual trends of rapidly changing volumes: falling traditional letter mail and increasing e-commerce-driven consumer parcels. The regulator wanted to identify other trends and opportunities impacting the growth and profitability of the sector. It needed to understand what the implications of these trends would be and how it could respond to help ensure a resilient and efficient national sector

The solution

• We completed a review of the postal and parcel sector to identify which market trends, risks and opportunities could impact growth and profitability of the sector
• Key concerns were the financial sustainability of the sector given fundamental shifts in consumer demand, and the operational efficiency of the sector given that existing infrastructure was no longer fit for purpose
• We developed a detailed market and financial model to forecast volumes, operational metrics and financial performance of key market players to better understand the long-term implications of trends in the sector
• Our analysis identified risks to financial sustainability and made recommendations on measures to improve service provider economics and overall resiliency
• Our analysis also forecast demand for both services and supporting infrastructure to provide a long-term roadmap for investments needed to maintain and improve efficiency

Figure: A new revenue driver for the universal service obligation

The result

• We produced a market and financial model with accompanying report detailing the implications of our findings and made recommendations on structural changes to ensure best outcomes for the sector. These helped our client to form policy and regulation changes which were implemented though legislation