Assessing satellite broadband and backhaul opportunities in emerging markets

The problem

One of the 'big four' fixed satellite services operators wished to evaluate the potential for satellite broadband and backhaul services in a number of regions (both developed and emerging). It selected Analysys Mason to undertake a series of projects to assess the market in each region on a bottom-up basis (i.e. by considering the opportunity in a representative sample of markets in each region).

The solution

We forecast the addressable market for satellite broadband year by year, starting from the total number of premises in each country and then estimating the proportion that are likely to be covered by next-generation fixed broadband and high-speed mobile broadband, the proportion of the remaining households that may take a dedicated satellite broadband connection (factoring in the expected price of the service) and, in some countries, the potential for community broadband services. In some countries we also assessed the potential market for mobile backhaul by satellite based on a total cost of ownership (TCO) and geographical analysis to identify where satellite is more cost effective than other technologies (mainly microwave), the estimated number of rural cell sites and the proportion that might be cost effectively served by satellite.

The result

We presented our findings to the operator's senior management and provided a wealth of supporting details to assist our client in evaluating the business case for new satellite capacity in each region. Our findings formed a key input to the operator's strategic planning process for new capacity and to its business plan.