Supported a telecoms infrastructure player in assessing a tower market in South Asia as part of a potential acquisition of a tower portfolio

The problem

• Our client, a conglomerate in South Asia with a towerco subsidiary, was considering a bid for a tower portfolio. As part of the bid submission exercise, it commissioned Analysys Mason to prepare an independent market study report on the country’s tower market
• The scope of the study included a review of the mobile market, a forecast of tower demand and tenancy ratio, and an assessment of the potential impact from key sensitivities and scenarios

The solution

• We first conducted an in-depth study of the mobile market and developed a data traffic forecast by MNOs, which includes an assessment of subscriber growth, market share development and data usage projections
• We then assessed the demand for capacity and coverage sites from mobile operators, taking into account various factors including their current and expected network coverage and spectrum holdings. This was validated by interviews with the MNOs to understand their current and potential future network deployment, by technology
• We then reviewed the supply of towers available in the market and the resulting competitive landscape. This was combined with the site demand by MNO to develop a forecast of the number of towers and tenancy ratio
• We identified key sensitivities and scenarios to consider given the local market context and quantified the potential impact on tenancies and towers

Figure: Overview of methodology used to determine site demand by MNO

The result

• The client used our assessment of the tower market and the projected tenancy ratio to inform its bid for the tower portfolio