GEO satellite operators could adopt delayering to enter the LEO market

Non-geostationary (non-GEO) players are capturing an increasing share of satellite capacity revenue. Indeed, Analysys Mason’s Satellite capacity supply and demand: trends and forecasts 2023–2033 shows that these players are expected to account for 50% of all satellite capacity revenue worldwide by 2033. Traditional geostationary (GEO) operators therefore need to find a way to enter the growing non-GEO market if they want to stay relevant.

However, participation in the low-Earth orbit (LEO) infrastructure market presents multiple challenges for GEO satellite operators. For example, most GEO operators are focused on a specific region and the commercialisation of LEO constellations requires providers to have a global footprint. Additionally, significant investments are needed to develop an LEO constellation and regional LEO players may not have sufficient scale to incur these expenses. At the same time, SpaceX continues to rapidly develop its LEO constellation, thereby putting itself in an even more dominant position and setting formidable barriers for new entrants in the LEO space.