Space ground segment: the critical enabler of space growth

Christopher Baugh

Hello, and welcome to the Analysys Mason podcast. My name is Christopher Baugh, partner at Analysys Mason and head of the space research team.

Today, I'm joined by one of my colleagues, Luke Wyles, who's an analyst within my team and the programme head for one of our newest programmes, the Space Ground Segment programme.

Welcome to the podcast, Luke.

Luke Wyles

Hi, Chris.

Christopher Baugh

Thanks for joining. We're delighted to have this podcast today because it's the big announcement, the big unveiling of our newest programme within the space research team, the Space Ground Segment.

Before we jump into some questions, I’ll just give a bit of history. The way that we've built our research plan, we came from a world of 30 or so big monolithic forecast reports, just boil the ocean, big things. We've mapped all of that into the world of programmes, thematic, annual engagement research-driven, insights-driven, and engagement-driven programmes. We have produced six of them to date, from capacity to mobility, space strategies for telcos, earth observation, governmental space, and infrastructure. So a lot of programmes. But there is a missing piece here, which is what we're covering today, a critical piece of space, which is the ground segment. So that's why we have Luke on today, he's the programme head. We'll hear from him about what we're covering and some key themes that I think are important for our audience. So Luke, could you introduce the programme briefly, what it contains and what it covers, broadly speaking?

Luke Wyles

So, we're covering the global satcom ground segment opportunity. It will contain existing forecast reports on the global ground segment and flat panel antennas. Those are the core reports that size the revenue opportunity and have segmented forecast data by region, application and frequency band. Covering not only terminals but also gateway hubs and earth station hardware as well, the programme is going to be formed in core by those forecast reports and then supported by our strategy focus with a number of strategy reports. Firstly, AI-driven orchestration in satcom, which is currently in the works and will be up on the site in the next week. And then, in future, we're planning more strategy on ground segment as a service, flat panel technologies, and doing what we can to help our clients see the emerging technologies and innovations in the market and whether that is appropriate for them.

Christopher Baugh

Interesting. So it sounds like from the days of reports, in which we still have data sets, we still have big forecasts, ground segment and flat panel, complemented significantly by strategy, deep dives, those types of things, which are the value add, I think, within the programme. Very interesting.

Our programmes are, first and foremost, thematic. They're based on themes. They're based on industry issues that our clients are trying to either understand, solve or plan for, etc.

What are some of the themes within this specific Ground Segment programme that we'll be covering?

Overview of the Ground Segment programme

Luke Wyles

I think there are three themes we could probably draw out. The first is on terminals. And we've seen in recent years the advancement of FPA technology and terminals becoming increasingly flexible, whether that be through multi-band or multi-orbit capabilities. We're definitely focused on advancements in terminals and their flexibility.

Secondly, we're considering network equipment and software, advancements in baseband processing and a transition towards virtual architecture, which replaces normal hardware functions with software that can be remotely updated and remotely deployed. It's a big industry-wide development that we're seeing, perhaps second only to industry standardisation. As players are trying to navigate an intensely competitive, vertically integrated environment, many of them are turning towards a standards-based ecosystem, adopting telco standards like MEF, TMF, and, of course, 3GPP to deliver interoperable services that are far less siloed than satcom has been in the past.

The importance of virtualisation

Christopher Baugh

Excellent. You mentioned a couple of key themes, which I believe are across the industry multi-band/multi-orbit standardisation, massively important themes and topics. One that's come up a lot, that I see, and I'm sure you're seeing, and our clients are seeing, is a virtualisation and the absolute need in the short, medium-long term to virtualise infrastructure.

Is this the essential piece in your eyes? Is this a key piece of the puzzle going forward for the ground segment?

Luke Wyles

For sure, I would agree with that because it seems that virtualisation is a critical enabler for a number of other advancements and trends in satcom. Firstly, the increased flexibility in the space segment with software-defined satellites and inter-satellite links is going to necessitate increased flexibility in the ground segment to coordinate and flexibly serve multi-domain/multi-orbit networks. Then, there are a number of other things which would be supported by virtualisation, like the adoption of living standards, 5G NTN, as well as terminal flexibility and gateway flexibility. So anywhere you look, whether it's at the terminal end or the hub end, it's a trend towards flexibility and overcoming the existing obsolescence which you can get from proprietary hardware, it becomes outdated and can't be easily updated. Virtualisation is something which players like Kratos and Hughes are working into their platforms, Kratos OpenSpace and Hughes JUPITER are both using virtual components, so they're ready for 5G adoption.

Christopher Baugh

So it's that move from hardware and proprietary and standards we'll talk about later. But moving to virtualisation, do we envision a world where everything is virtualised, all software-based? Is that the ultimate goal with virtualisation in the space ground segment world?

Luke Wyles

Certainly not overnight. I think there are still network functions which a lot of players will find better performed by hardware, specifically modulation. But in the long term, I think there's a clear advantage to having all your functions be virtualised. The whole solution can be deployed remotely, potentially bringing the cost down of new service provision. So I would anticipate that, although some vendors have already set out to go fully virtual, I think they'll be joined by more in time.

Significance of standardisation

Christopher Baugh

OK. Yes, it seems like that's the ultimate end goal for iDirects and other companies in the world who are trying to get to that point where it is a software-based world. Interesting trends, but I want to go back to standardisation for a second because if you're a historian in space, standards are one of these interesting topics that have been on the agenda for many years. Old standards like DVB-RCS and even adapting old cable standards to space were done. It's not been a widely accepted or deployed type of world for standards. It's been a highly proprietary world. And today, it seems like there's a lot of movement in the other direction, back towards proposition for standards. So, is this significant now? Is this a key piece of the puzzle, as well as virtualisation standards? Are we going to reach a tipping point, potentially, for the ground segment?

Luke Wyles

Yes, I think so. And the causal influence for that is twofold. Firstly, the inclusion of NTN in 3GPP release 17 a couple of years ago allows satcom to come into a living telco standard and have some better interoperability with telco. So, the adoption of 5G from a satellite player's perspective is the business upside would be in improved telco partnerships but also improved interoperability with other satellite players in the ecosystem. By having a standards-based ecosystem, I think the ground segment will transition towards a place where multiple vendors are serving a generic interchangeable terminal with the same 5G waveform, nothing proprietary. Then, customers aren't locked into whoever their provider is, and regional players can participate in shared global networks. So there's a real potential win-win, especially for smaller incumbent operators, as it needs to compete with the pace and scale of innovation from much larger players like Starlink. It seems almost a no-brainer for them to go into the standards-based route so that they could pool their R&D resources with fellow players who are also working on the standard rather than always having to go their own way.

Christopher Baugh

Yes, it's what's limited the scale of space for so long, everything being so proprietary and resources limited. It seems like standards are, with 5G-based and standards bodies we're all subscribed to now, such a critical component. It's something I know that will be covered in the programme.

Turning the tables a little bit on to another topic, which is orchestration, another key theme. This is service and network orchestration. In a world where it is multi-orbit/multi-band, this is a highly complex, really challenging environment. Can you elaborate a bit on this piece and how it's covered? This is something I think is going to be very important. Who's developing it? Is this an operator-driven, ground-vendor-driven? Who's driving the orchestration push for space?

Exploring orchestration in satcom

Luke Wyles

On the orchestration side, I would count this under the network equipment and software theme. It's covered in some depth in the programme. It's a very pressing issue for operators, particularly constellation players that want to play in multi-domain environments, multi-orbit, multi-vendor. These systems are going to be extremely complicated and require a lot of interoperation between multiple players that are supporting the same service, like LEO, GEO, or some other combination. There will be some operators that take the orchestration side into their own hands, where they have some savvy engineers who want to develop it in-house. But, the situation is going to be very complex and maybe not all operators are going to have the in-house capability. Particularly as the space segment gets increasingly more complicated, the matter of orchestrating it grows in complexity almost exponentially as more satellites are connected to a mesh network of ISLs. So, I think these orchestration products are going to be developed by third parties.

Some existing terrestrial software vendors like Netcracker are developing OSS BSS with enhancements for satellites. And then on the resource orchestration side, there are players like Aalyria that are probably at the cutting edge of multi-domain interoperable orchestration that I think would be quite hard for most operators to match, particularly as these resource and service orchestration products are going to have to go hand in hand with standards and interoperability. So it makes the most sense for a single player, a software player, to have developed a standards-based system with a standard approach, potentially following TMF digital architecture standards as those are developed, and then to offer this standards-based and interoperable product to a variety of operators that want to participate.

Christopher Baugh

I completely agree with you. We hear again and again from operators about the complexities and challenges on this specific front. To optimise resources, to optimise bandwidth and service in a very CapEx-intensive world, this is something I think is a massive part of the equation.

I have one question and a summation here. One question is, we, as a company at Analysys Mason, are heavily focused on AI, how it drives telecom, and, of course, what's happening in space. I know there's a big impact on the ground segment, but can you elaborate a bit on what's happening? How are we incorporating AI within the ground segment? How does it fit? And what opportunity exists, maybe specifically application-driven or technology-driven? What is it, and where's the application?

The role of AI in the ground segment

Luke Wyles

I think the main drivers for AI and machine learning to be used in the ground segment and in satcom are capacity management and resource management. It will be an extension of the orchestration piece as networks become increasingly complicated. I know Aalyria is already involving machine learning in their approach. When you're managing a mesh network, the marginal complexity for each additional satellite is that much greater if you're using a classical computational approach to solving the optimisation problem. But with machine learning, the resource controller, network manager, orchestrator, whatever you call it, will be able to iteratively, over time, learn more of the efficient network permutations and be able to trim the very large search space of options for the most viable CapEx saving utilisation driving arrangement. So it's definitely going to come in the orchestration piece as multi-orbit services with a number of interconnected software-defined payloads, each with their own beamforming/beam shaping. That level of complexity will require AI, which is all the more reason that I think few operators will develop it of their own accord.

Christopher Baugh

Very interesting. Thanks, Luke.

Just to boil it all down, what is the key message here about the space ground segment topic and the programme that we offer? Why is this the topic, and why now?

Luke Wyles

Well, I think the ground segment, as you alluded to earlier, is the critical enabler to extract value out of the rest of the satcom value chain. To extract value out of your space-based assets. Now, that need is all the more pressing with a particularly fast pace of innovation in the space segment and a desire to coordinate next-generation services.

Christopher Baugh

Absolutely. I think it's often forgotten or not as visually appealing as launching and deploying spacecraft, but I believe it is the key piece of the puzzle.

Thank you, Luke. I appreciate all the comments today. I'm excited to see the content that gets launched with this new programme.

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