Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2023–2028

17 May 2024 | Research

Erik Ottosson

Forecast report | PPTX and PDF (60 slides); Excel | Asia–Pacific


"Total telecoms service revenue in EMAP will increase by USD68.3 billion between 2023 and 2028 to reach USD475 billion."

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Both telecoms revenue and the number of subscribers will continue to grow in emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP) between 2023 and 2028. The telecoms market in EMAP will also gradually become more dependent on fixed services after historically being mobile-centric. 

In this report, we examine key trends and drivers, and provide comprehensive telecoms market forecasts for the region and for 13 individually modelled countries for 2023–2028.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 200 mobile and fixed KPIs for the EMAP region as a whole and for 13 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results and key implications for mobile and fixed operators.

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Geographical coverage

Region modelled

 

Countries modelled individually

Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP)

 
  • Bangladesh
  • Cambodia
  • China
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Myanmar
  • Nepal
  • Pakistan
  • Philippines
  • Sri Lanka
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam

Key performance indicators

Connections

  • Mobile:
    • total (handset plus mobile broadband, excluding IoT), total including IoT, business
    • handset: smartphone, basic, smartphone share of handsets
    • mobile broadband
    • total, handset and broadband: 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
    • total and handset: prepaid, contract and prepaid share
    • IoT
    • penetration: total, prepaid, contract, handset, smartphone, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Fixed:
    • voice: narrowband, VoBB, dial-up
    • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies, total business connections
    • penetration: voice, broadband (business sites and households)
  • Pay TV
    • operator, traditional

 

Traffic

  • Outgoing minutes (fixed and mobile), MoU
  • Cellular data and messaging traffic

 

Network-independent metrics

  • GDP
  • Population
  • Households
  • Business sites
  • Exchange rates
 

Revenue/ARPU/ASPU

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month
    • prepaid, contract, prepaid share
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
  • Fixed:
    • total (retail plus wholesale)
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month

 

Retail revenue

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month
    • per GB
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
    • voice, voice per minute
    • data, data per GB 
    • handset: total, voice, messaging, data, prepaid, contract, prepaid share
    • mobile broadband
    • IoT
  • Fixed:
    • total
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month
    • voice
    • dedicated connections
    • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies
  • ICT services
  • Pay TV
    • operator, traditional

 

Wholesale revenue

  • Mobile
  • Fixed

 

ASPU

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • voice
    • data
    • mobile broadband
    • IoT
    • handset: total, prepaid, contract, voice, messaging, data
  • Fixed:
    • voice
    • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies

 

ARPU

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • prepaid, contract
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

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Author

Erik Ottosson

Analyst