Indonesia: telecoms market forecast 2024–2029

27 September 2024 | Research

James McManus

Forecast | PPTX and PDF (5 slides) | Emerging Asia–Pacific Metrics and Forecasts


“Growth in the number of fixed and mobile connections will be the primary driver of increased total retail revenue, as ARPU is expected to remain flat.”

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Analysys Mason provides detailed 5-year forecasts of the telecoms market in Asia–Pacific. This report focuses on operators’ core telecoms services in Indonesia.

This report and the associated data provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of mobile and fixed KPIs for Indonesia
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics
  • a summary of results and key implications for mobile and fixed operators.

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Geographical coverage

Region modelled

 

Country modelled individually

Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP)

  
  • Indonesia

 

Key performance indicators

Connections

  • Mobile:
    • total (handset plus mobile broadband, excluding IoT), total including IoT
    • handset: smartphone, basic, smartphone share of handsets
    • mobile broadband
    • total, handset and broadband: 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
    • business, residential
    • total and handset: prepaid, contract and prepaid share
    • IoT
    • penetration: total, prepaid, contract, handset, smartphone, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Fixed:
    • voice: narrowband, VoBB, dial-up
    • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies, gigabit-capable connections
    • business, residential
    • dedicated connections
    • penetration (business sites and households): voice, broadband (ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, other technologies)
  • Pay TV
    • operator, traditional
    • business, residential

 

Traffic

  • Outgoing minutes (fixed and mobile), MoU
  • Cellular data and messaging traffic

 

Network-independent metrics

  • GDP
  • Population
  • Households
  • Business sites
  • Exchange rates
  

Service revenue

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month
    • residential, business
    • prepaid, contract, prepaid share
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
  • Fixed:
    • total (retail plus wholesale)
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month

 

Retail revenue

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month
    • business, residential
    • per GB
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
    • voice, voice per minute
    • data, data per GB 
    • handset: total, voice, messaging, data, prepaid, contract, prepaid share
    • mobile broadband
    • IoT connectivity
  • Fixed:
    • total
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month
    • business, residential
    • voice: narrowband, VoBB
    • dedicated connections
    • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies, as a share of fixed retail revenue
  • ICT services
  • Pay TV
    • operator, traditional
    • business, residential

 

Wholesale revenue

  • Mobile
  • Fixed

 

ASPU

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • voice
    • data
    • mobile broadband
    • IoT
    • handset: total, prepaid, contract, voice, messaging, data
    • business, residential
  • Fixed:
    • voice
    • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies
    • business, residential

 

ARPU

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • prepaid, contract
    • business, residential
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

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Asia–Pacific forecasts

Analysys Mason's 'Asia–Pacific Metrics and Forecasts' research module provides detailed 5-year forecasts of the fixed and mobile telecoms markets for 14 countries and two major regions: developed Asia–Pacific and emerging Asia–Pacific.

Read more

Author

James McManus

Analyst

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